Earnings season has been solid. Over 82% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beat expectations. The market has rallied on the back of strong corporate profits, and we’re seeing genuine earnings growth, not just multiple expansion.
But we’re not done yet. Some of the biggest names are still on the calendar this week, and these reports matter more than most. We’re about to get critical reads on AI infrastructure spending and the health of the American consumer. The guidance from these companies could set the tone for the rest of the year.
Here’s what we’re watching.
Tuesday: Home Depot (HD)
Report time: Before the open | Conference call: 9 a.m. ET
Home Depot has been quietly consistent. Last quarter, the stock rose 3% after management maintained their full-year outlook. Expectations are for earnings to tick slightly higher year-over-year.
The track record here is strong: Home Depot beats earnings expectations 85% of the time. That’s one of the better batting averages in the market. The housing market has been weird all year with rates bouncing around, but home improvement spending has held up better than a lot of people expected.
We’re not expecting fireworks here, but Home Depot tends to be a reliable indicator of consumer willingness to spend on big-ticket items. If they guide down, that’s worth paying attention to.
Wednesday: The Big Two
Target (TGT)
Report time: Before the open | Conference call: 8 a.m. ET
Target is a mess right now. The stock has been in freefall, down 32% this year. Last quarter was brutal: the company announced a new CEO and reported declining sales again. Shares have fallen after the last four earnings reports, including a 21% plunge on Q3 2024 numbers.
Expectations are for EPS to fall 7% year-over-year. JPMorgan lowered their same-store sales estimates last week, citing weakness in September and October. They pointed to “deeper valleys between shopping events, pressures on the lower-income consumer, and some boycott pressure” as headwinds.
The bar is low. Management is in transition. New CEO Michael Fiddelke takes over February 1st and already announced 1,800 job cuts. If they can just meet the reduced expectations and not guide lower, the stock might catch a bid. But this one’s a minefield.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Report time: After the close | Conference call: 5 p.m. ET
This is the one everyone’s waiting for.
Nvidia has beaten earnings expectations for 11 consecutive quarters. Analysts expect earnings to have soared more than 50% from the year-ago period. Several analysts just raised their price targets ahead of the report. Oppenheimer hiked theirs to $265 from $225, citing “structural tailwinds driving sustained outsized top-line growth in high performance gaming, datacenter/AI and autonomous driving vehicles.”
The AI trade has been volatile over the past few weeks. Nvidia is going to give us the clearest read on whether enterprise AI spending is accelerating, stable, or showing any signs of fatigue. Management will also provide guidance that could set the tone for the entire semiconductor sector heading into year-end.
Last quarter, Nvidia beat on both revenue and earnings and said they expect big AI spending to continue. The question now is whether that momentum is intact or if we’re seeing any slowdown in data center buildouts.
This report matters beyond just Nvidia. If they disappoint or guide cautiously, expect ripple effects across the entire AI ecosystem, from chip designers to data center REITs to cloud providers.
Thursday: Walmart (WMT)
Report time: Before the open | Conference call: 8 a.m. ET
Walmart is the bellwether for the American consumer. Period.
Last quarter, they raised their sales and earnings outlook despite facing higher tariff costs. That was impressive. This quarter, analysts expect EPS to rise slightly year-over-year.
The wrinkle? CEO Doug McMillon just announced he’s stepping down effective February 1st. The succession is already planned, but investors will be looking for any commentary on the transition and what it means for strategy going forward.
Walmart’s earnings beat rate stands at 72%, though last quarter marked their first miss since 2022. Given the CEO transition and the ongoing questions about consumer health, this report could move the stock either way.
If Walmart shows strength while Target continues to struggle, that tells us something about market share shifts and which retailers are winning. If both are weak, that’s a different story about the consumer.
What We’re Really Watching For
Consumer health: Target and Walmart will give us the clearest picture yet of whether the consumer is weakening, stable, or still spending. The divergence between the two companies has been notable this year.
AI spending trajectory: Nvidia’s guidance will set expectations for 2026 data center spending. Any sign of a slowdown will hit the entire tech sector.
Holiday outlook: All four companies will provide commentary on the upcoming holiday season. Retail sales for November and December can make or break the year for these companies.
Earnings season has been strong so far, but these final reports matter. Nvidia alone could determine whether tech continues its run or takes a breather. The retailers will tell us if the consumer can keep propping up the economy heading into year-end.
We’ll be watching closely.