Gold has had an absurd run this year. We saw it touch $4,359 per ounce in mid-October before pulling back about 8% to around $4,000. That’s a meaningful correction, and it sent the mining stocks tumbling even harder.
Newmont is down 18% from its peak. AngloGold Ashanti dropped 13%. Southern Copper fell 11%. This is the leverage you get with miners—they amplify the moves in the underlying metal, both ways.
But here’s the thing: the reasons gold went parabolic in the first place haven’t disappeared. And if you’ve been waiting for an entry point in the miners, this pullback might be exactly what you were looking for.
Why Gold Works Right Now
Let’s be blunt about what’s driving gold. It’s not inflation—that’s cooled off considerably. It’s not really about interest rates either, though those matter at the margin.
Gold is working because trust is breaking down everywhere you look.
Central banks around the world are buying gold at record rates. Why? Because they don’t trust the dollar the way they used to. Half the country thinks the current administration is corrupt. The other half thinks their opponents are trying to destroy democracy. We can’t agree on basic facts anymore, let alone solutions to actual problems.
This isn’t a political statement—it’s an observation about market conditions. When societies fracture and institutions lose credibility, people turn to assets that don’t require trust in anyone. Gold has played that role for thousands of years, going back to the Silk Road when traders from different empires needed something everyone would accept.
That dynamic is back. And it’s not going away just because gold pulled back 8% in a few weeks.
The Miners Are Printing Money
While gold prices consolidate, the mining companies are still generating serious cash. Let’s look at what they’re actually reporting:
AngloGold Ashanti is expecting 157% earnings growth this year. That’s not a typo. They report Thursday, and if they deliver anywhere close to those estimates, the 13% pullback in the stock starts looking like a gift.
Southern Copper just beat estimates on both revenue and earnings, posting 9% year-over-year operating earnings growth. The stock went parabolic earlier, which is why we held off. Now it’s correcting in an orderly way, and support around $125 looks solid.
Newmont reported record free cash flow with all-in sustaining costs of $1,566 per ounce. With gold still trading above $4,000, their margins are ridiculous. The stock is down 18% from its highs but still up 110% this year. It’s the blue-chip play in an industry that historically hasn’t been known for great management.
The Setup Gets Better
Here’s what makes this interesting right now: oil and gas prices are low. That matters because energy is one of the biggest cost inputs for mining operations. When your costs are falling and the price of what you’re selling remains elevated, your margins expand. It’s not complicated.
Gold miners are operating in an environment where demand for the metal is strong, prices are still near record highs, and their input costs are dropping. That’s about as good as it gets for profitability.
The question is whether gold prices stay elevated or collapse back to $2,500. If you think the structural drivers—central bank buying, currency debasement concerns, geopolitical instability—are real and lasting, then these miners are leveraged bets on that thesis.
Which One Makes Sense?
Newmont is the safest play. It’s the largest, most liquid name with institutional support. If you think gold resumes its uptrend and you want a relatively conservative way to play it, this is the one. Down 18% from highs gives you a decent entry, and it’s still the go-to name for big money managers adding gold exposure.
AngloGold Ashanti is more volatile but interesting here. The stock pulled back to its 50-day moving average, which has been acting as support during the uptrend. If buyers step in around these levels, it could bounce hard. Earnings Thursday will be the catalyst one way or the other.
Southern Copper is the most technical setup. It’s correcting after going parabolic, which is healthy. Support at $125 should hold unless something breaks in the broader metals market. If you’re patient and can wait for it to drift down into that level, there’s a trade there.
The Risk Is Real
Let’s not pretend this is free money. These stocks are down 11-18% in a matter of weeks because gold itself pulled back. If gold breaks lower—say it tests $3,800 or $3,700—these miners will get hit even harder. That’s the leverage game you’re playing.
But if you believe the macro setup for gold remains intact, then this pullback is just noise. Central banks aren’t suddenly going to stop buying. Currency concerns aren’t going away. The societal factors driving demand for “low-trust assets” aren’t getting better anytime soon.
Our Take
We’re watching all three of these names. The fundamentals for gold miners are still strong—record cash flow, high margins, low input costs. The 8% pullback in gold prices has created an opportunity to get into the miners at better levels than we saw a few weeks ago.
If you’ve been sitting on your hands waiting for an entry, this might be it. The metals could consolidate for a while longer, or they could turn around tomorrow. Nobody knows. But the setup is there if you want to take it.
Are you buying this dip in gold miners? Let us know what you’re seeing.